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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 29mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2028 be above 4.0%?

YES means Above 4.0%

24h volume
0
1,826 lifetime
Open interest
330
+0 over 7d
Spread
9¢
12 × 6.86 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 91¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10668¢
  • ask30459¢
  • ask7153¢
  • ask5744¢
  • ask126¢
  • ask2425¢
  • ask1319¢
  • ask6.8618¢
spread9¢mid 14¢
  • bid129¢
  • bid3258¢
  • bid413¢
  • bid982¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2028 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The initially reported value for December 2028 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2028, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2029 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXUSCPIYEAR-29FEB01-T4.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20d ago17¢5bought yes
20d ago17¢2.35bought yes
20d ago17¢2.65bought yes
21d ago14¢5bought yes
1mo ago8¢29bought no
2mo ago12¢20bought yes
2mo ago14¢416bought no
2mo ago15¢15bought no
2mo ago15¢2.75bought no
2mo ago15¢2.25bought no
2mo ago16¢6bought no
2mo ago15¢1.81bought no
2mo ago16¢1bought no
2mo ago15¢13bought no
2mo ago16¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.