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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 90mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2033 be above 0.5%?

YES means Above 0.5%

24h volume
0
83 lifetime
Open interest
26
Spread
73¢
10 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
87%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
13%

costs 73¢

YES bid / ask
27¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 73¢
Recent buying47% YES · 53% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
    spread–mid –
    • bid1027¢
    • bid10026¢
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2033 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The initially reported value for December 2033 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2033, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Feb 1, 2034 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Feb 8, 2034 · 6:30 AM UTC
    floor
    0.5
    ticker
    KXUSCPIYEAR-34FEB01-T0.5
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 19 trades, 47% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    23d ago87¢2bought yes
    23d ago87¢2bought yes
    2mo ago72¢1bought no
    2mo ago72¢11bought no
    2mo ago81¢15bought no
    2mo ago81¢16bought no
    2mo ago81¢1bought yes
    2mo ago81¢1bought no
    2mo ago61¢6bought yes
    2mo ago61¢3.02bought yes
    2mo ago61¢2bought yes
    2mo ago61¢6bought yes
    2mo ago61¢1.99bought yes
    2mo ago61¢1.99bought yes
    2mo ago61¢2bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.