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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 90mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2033 be above 5.5%?

YES means Above 5.5%

24h volume
0
171 lifetime
Open interest
45
+1 over 30d
Spread
77¢
3 × 42 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 79¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4298¢
spread77¢mid 60¢
  • bid321¢
  • bid322¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2033 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The initially reported value for December 2033 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2033, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2034 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2034 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
5.5
ticker
KXUSCPIYEAR-34FEB01-T5.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago22¢10bought no
21d ago36¢1bought no
1mo ago23¢12bought yes
1mo ago23¢42bought yes
1mo ago23¢21bought yes
1mo ago22¢2bought no
1mo ago22¢25bought no
1mo ago22¢25bought no
1mo ago22¢15bought no
1mo ago22¢2bought no
1mo ago22¢10bought no
2mo ago25¢2bought yes
2mo ago20¢2bought yes
2mo ago34¢2bought no
2mo ago25¢0.01bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.