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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 126mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2036 be above 4.0%?

YES means Above 4.0%

24h volume
0
101 lifetime
Open interest
19
+17 over 90d
Spread
55¢
20 × 4 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
44%

A YES contract costs 72¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
56%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 72¢
NO bid / ask
28¢ / 83¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volJul 30Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask20098¢
  • ask897¢
  • ask472¢
spread55¢mid 45¢
  • bid2017¢
  • bid2252¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2036 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The initially reported value for December 2036 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2036, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2037 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2037 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXUSCPIYEAR-37FEB01-T4.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
21d ago44¢4bought no
2mo ago39¢8bought yes
2mo ago38¢19bought yes
2mo ago38¢13bought yes
2mo ago37¢15bought no
2mo ago37¢22bought no
2mo ago38¢2bought yes
2mo ago38¢1bought yes
2mo ago38¢2bought yes
2mo ago32¢5bought yes
2mo ago36¢2bought yes
2mo ago36¢2bought yes
2mo ago36¢2bought yes
2mo ago36¢2bought yes
2mo ago42¢0.01bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.