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Will Vance and Rubio run for President?·closes in 16mo

Will Rubio and Vance run for President?

YES means JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican

24h volume
85
9,875 lifetime
Open interest
4,893
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
5 × 202 at the touch
24h range
37¢ – 42¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%+7

A YES contract costs 42¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 63¢

YES bid / ask
37¢ / 42¢
NO bid / ask
58¢ / 63¢
24h low 37¢24h high 42¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢volSep 20, 3:06 PMSep 21, 1:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask760¢
  • ask89259¢
  • ask82858¢
  • ask1,00057¢
  • ask6756¢
  • ask55554¢
  • ask6553¢
  • ask20242¢
spread5¢mid 40¢
  • bid537¢
  • bid1036¢
  • bid20035¢
  • bid20528¢
  • bid27427¢
  • bid1125¢
  • bid1020¢
  • bid11715¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If JD Vance and Marco Rubio both announce presidential campaigns to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: JD Vance (2028RUNPARTY), Marco Rubio (2028RUNPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2028.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVANCERUBIORUN-28JAN-REP
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Rubio and Vance run for President?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago42¢4.57bought yes
10h ago42¢2.28bought yes
16h ago37¢79bought no
3d ago35¢1.62bought no
4d ago41¢4.68bought yes
9d ago41¢1.17bought yes
9d ago39¢3.55bought yes
9d ago40¢21bought yes
11d ago39¢2.45bought yes
11d ago38¢200bought no
11d ago38¢1.77bought no
12d ago43¢56bought yes
14d ago38¢2.23bought no
14d ago43¢2.23bought yes
14d ago38¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.