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County vote percentages·closes in 14mo

Will Josh Turek receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Polk County, Iowa?

YES means At least 64%

24h volume
0
1,810 lifetime
Open interest
1,719
Spread
8¢
5 × 291 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 93¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6085¢
  • ask23865¢
  • ask70864¢
  • ask34363¢
  • ask11053¢
  • ask3352¢
  • ask345¢
  • ask29115¢
spread8¢mid 11¢
  • bid57¢
  • bid2006¢
  • bid3.193¢
  • bid1012¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Josh Turek in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Polk County, Iowa is 64% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 19 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
64
ticker
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEIA26POLKJTUR-64
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago20¢91bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢86bought no
1d ago21¢86bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no
1d ago21¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.