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County vote percentages·closes in 14mo

Will Abdul El-Sayed receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Genesee County, Michigan?

YES means At least 52%

24h volume
46
2,471 lifetime
Open interest
2,378
+2,378 over 30d
Spread
3¢
5 × 10 at the touch
24h range
57¢ – 64¢
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
64%+6

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
36%

costs 43¢

YES bid / ask
57¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 43¢
24h low 57¢24h high 64¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢55¢60¢65¢70¢volSep 20, 2:00 AMSep 21, 5:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4393¢
  • ask4791¢
  • ask1690¢
  • ask1489¢
  • ask1688¢
  • ask1784¢
  • ask20061¢
  • ask1060¢
spread3¢mid 59¢
  • bid557¢
  • bid10055¢
  • bid20051¢
  • bid3723¢
  • bid3210¢
  • bid1115¢
  • bid864¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Genesee County, Michigan is 52% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 19 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
52
ticker
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATEMI26GENESEEAELS-52
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 8 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago64¢46bought yes
1d ago58¢47bought yes
1d ago57¢47bought yes
1d ago58¢200bought yes
1d ago57¢42bought yes
1d ago57¢1,050bought yes
1d ago57¢840bought yes
1d ago58¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.