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Democratic VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will Raphael Warnock be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?

YES means Raphael Warnock

24h volume
0
87.5k lifetime
Open interest
75.8k
Spread
1¢
19 × 287 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 97¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask585¢
  • ask15.0k4¢
  • ask14¢
  • ask1,2364¢
  • ask1,5554¢
  • ask6094¢
  • ask564¢
  • ask2873¢
spread1¢mid 3¢
  • bid193¢
  • bid1473¢
  • bid5683¢
  • bid10.1k3¢
  • bid392¢
  • bid5202¢
  • bid1452¢
  • bid6002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Raphael Warnock accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMD-28-RW
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 93¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago3¢14bought no
2d ago3¢62bought yes
2d ago3¢75bought yes
3d ago3¢2bought no
4d ago3¢10bought yes
6d ago3¢100bought yes
6d ago3¢28bought yes
6d ago3¢10bought yes
8d ago4¢438bought yes
8d ago3¢4bought no
9d ago3¢2bought no
10d ago4¢10bought yes
10d ago4¢2.53bought yes
14d ago4¢616bought yes
19d ago3¢4bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.