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Republican VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Elon Musk

24h volume
0
45.2k lifetime
Open interest
29.2k
+2,584 over 90d
Spread
0¢
6,833 × 104 at the touch
24h range
–
49 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJul 7Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6,1971¢
  • ask431¢
  • ask191¢
  • ask4241¢
  • ask9,7701¢
  • ask5,2571¢
  • ask5040¢
  • ask1040¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid6,8330¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Elon Musk accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMR-28-EM
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 70¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 49 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago0¢1,000bought no
2d ago0¢2,000bought no
2d ago0¢250bought no
2d ago0¢167bought no
2d ago0¢570bought no
3d ago0¢0.2bought no
3d ago0¢2.36bought no
3d ago0¢1.64bought no
3d ago0¢6.67bought no
3d ago0¢3.96bought no
3d ago0¢430bought no
9d ago1¢10bought yes
10d ago1¢250bought yes
10d ago1¢781bought yes
10d ago1¢3bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.