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Republican VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will John Thune be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means John Thune

24h volume
0
5,039 lifetime
Open interest
4,840
+1,481 over 90d
Spread
0¢
26 × 1.32 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask212¢
  • ask61¢
  • ask7.931¢
  • ask22.5k1¢
  • ask5,2041¢
  • ask1,8521¢
  • ask8,8841¢
  • ask1.321¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid260¢
  • bid5000¢
  • bid101.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If John Thune accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMR-28-JT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 70¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago0¢13bought no
3d ago0¢120bought no
3d ago0¢52bought no
8d ago1¢10bought yes
8d ago1¢175bought yes
14d ago0¢3bought no
15d ago1¢250bought yes
1mo ago0¢0.05bought no
1mo ago0¢8.43bought no
1mo ago0¢0.05bought no
1mo ago0¢1.47bought no
1mo ago1¢801bought yes
2mo ago1¢133bought yes
2mo ago1¢1bought yes
2mo ago1¢11bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.