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Republican VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Ted Cruz

24h volume
0
22.2k lifetime
Open interest
20.2k
+11.3k over 30d
Spread
0¢
569 × 672 at the touch
24h range
–
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 99¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 27Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,4363¢
  • ask1313¢
  • ask762¢
  • ask10.0k2¢
  • ask4,7552¢
  • ask7,7042¢
  • ask8.352¢
  • ask6722¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid5691¢
  • bid1021¢
  • bid1061¢
  • bid1311¢
  • bid30.4k1¢
  • bid2951¢
  • bid5,0430¢
  • bid5,8680¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ted Cruz accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMR-28-TC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 70¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago1¢22bought no
4d ago1¢251bought no
4d ago1¢6.1bought no
4d ago1¢5.87bought no
4d ago1¢2.29bought no
4d ago1¢2.54bought no
4d ago1¢18bought no
4d ago1¢130bought no
4d ago1¢12bought no
8d ago2¢225bought yes
8d ago2¢1.24bought yes
8d ago2¢3bought yes
8d ago2¢221bought yes
9d ago2¢1.28bought yes
9d ago2¢130bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.