Wales snap election·closes in 16mo

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2028

24h volume
52
6,934 lifetime
Open interest
1,160
Spread
16¢
19 × 4.63 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%22

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
/ 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 97¢
Recent buying43% YES · 57% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,09655¢
  • ask27054¢
  • ask55253¢
  • ask452¢
  • ask34023¢
  • ask5422¢
  • ask10020¢
  • ask4.6319¢
spread16¢mid 11¢
  • bid19
  • bid162
  • bid142
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. A snap election is an extraordinary general election to the Senedd under section 5 of the Government of Wales Act 2006. A qualifying call must be announced by a person or body with legal authority to call the election and must specify an actual polling date. Requests for an election, a dissolution resolution, or failure to nominate a First Minister without such a call do not qualify. Ordinary general elections and constituency by-elections do not qualify.

opened
Sep 14 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWALESSNAPPROV-28-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14h ago23bought no
14h ago29bought no
2d ago24¢25bought yes
2d ago22¢143bought yes
2d ago21¢22bought yes
2d ago22¢400bought yes
2d ago22¢100bought yes
2d ago22¢0.01bought yes
2d ago21¢25bought yes
2d ago20¢23bought yes
2d ago16¢14bought no
2d ago17¢126bought yes
2d ago16¢4bought yes
2d ago16¢0.01bought yes
2d ago17¢600bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.