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Global warming·closes in 282mo

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

YES means Before 2050

24h volume
0
21.6k lifetime
Open interest
4,017
+0 over 24h
Spread
3¢
35 × 67 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
70%

A YES contract costs 69¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
30%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 69¢
NO bid / ask
31¢ / 34¢
Recent buying37% YES · 63% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢65¢70¢75¢volNov 4, 4:16 AMNov 5, 1:32 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6094¢
  • ask5193¢
  • ask285¢
  • ask73584¢
  • ask40076¢
  • ask46375¢
  • ask52270¢
  • ask6769¢
spread3¢mid 68¢
  • bid3566¢
  • bid6265¢
  • bid56664¢
  • bid1,31950¢
  • bid5349¢
  • bid20031¢
  • bid60030¢
  • bid5013¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 5, 2025 · 4:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2050 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWARMING-50
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 37% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago68¢5bought yes
1d ago68¢15bought yes
1d ago69¢29bought yes
1d ago70¢19bought yes
2d ago64¢18bought no
2d ago64¢6bought no
3d ago68¢7.19bought yes
3d ago64¢1.39bought no
4d ago65¢16bought no
4d ago66¢2.08bought no
4d ago66¢2.08bought no
4d ago66¢5bought no
4d ago65¢1bought no
4d ago66¢10bought no
4d ago64¢8.94bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.