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Global warming·closes in 283mo

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

YES means Before 2050

24h volume
0
17.5k lifetime
Open interest
5,091
Spread
5¢
5 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
74%

A YES contract costs 80¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
26%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 80¢
NO bid / ask
20¢ / 25¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,26197¢
  • ask4896¢
  • ask3795¢
  • ask1.2193¢
  • ask6.3191¢
  • ask50082¢
  • ask5581¢
  • ask1580¢
spread5¢mid 78¢
  • bid575¢
  • bid63374¢
  • bid1173¢
  • bid2571¢
  • bid5066¢
  • bid1562¢
  • bid20061¢
  • bid40060¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 5, 2025 · 4:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2050 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWARMING-50
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago74¢47bought no
1d ago79¢1bought no
1d ago75¢1.21bought no
2d ago82¢1bought yes
3d ago76¢0.29bought no
3d ago76¢0.92bought no
3d ago81¢1.21bought yes
3d ago84¢1bought yes
3d ago84¢1bought yes
3d ago80¢10bought yes
3d ago80¢5bought yes
3d ago81¢104bought yes
3d ago79¢5bought yes
3d ago81¢14bought yes
3d ago80¢61bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.