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World Cup Qualifiers·closes in 53mo

Will Italy qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?

YES means Italy

24h volume
0
273 lifetime
Open interest
179
+0 over 24h
Spread
8¢
5 × 230 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
92%

A YES contract costs 93¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
8%

costs 15¢

YES bid / ask
85¢ / 93¢
NO bid / ask
7¢ / 15¢
Recent buying24% YES · 76% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23093¢
spread8¢mid 89¢
  • bid585¢
  • bid20084¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Italy qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Important information: This market resolves Yes if Italy officially qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup under the qualification format in effect for that tournament. Any change to the tournament format, including an expansion or reduction in the number of participating teams, will not affect resolution; this market will resolve solely based on whether Italy qualifies for the main tournament. Advancing to a later stage of qualification without securing a place in the main tournament does not count. The market will resolve based on official confirmation from FIFA or the applicable continental confederation.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 21 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 15, 2031 · 3:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXWCQUAL-30-ITA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 24% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago92¢10bought yes
1mo ago92¢39bought yes
1mo ago92¢10bought yes
2mo ago82¢5.25bought no
2mo ago83¢25bought no
2mo ago91¢0.47bought yes
2mo ago91¢5bought yes
2mo ago84¢5bought no
2mo ago83¢23bought no
2mo ago84¢59bought no
2mo ago84¢2.93bought no
2mo ago85¢88bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.