World Cup Qualifiers·closes in 53mo

Will Mexico qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?

YES means Mexico

24h volume: 3; 65 lifetime
Open interest: 15
Spread: 8¢; 5 × 50 at the touch
24h range: –; 7 recent trades

Chance of YES

97%−1

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

costs 8¢

YES bid / ask

92¢ / 100¢

NO bid / ask

0¢ / 8¢

Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask200100¢
ask2100¢
ask50100¢

spread8¢mid 96¢

bid592¢
bid20092¢
bid4,7823¢
bid433¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Mexico qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Important information: This market resolves Yes if Mexico officially qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup under the qualification format in effect for that tournament. Any change to the tournament format, including an expansion or reduction in the number of participating teams, will not affect resolution; this market will resolve solely based on whether Mexico qualifies for the main tournament. Advancing to a later stage of qualification without securing a place in the main tournament does not count. The market will resolve based on official confirmation from FIFA or the applicable continental confederation.

Settlement sources

opened: Jul 21 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes: Jan 15, 2031 · 3:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 AM UTC
ticker: KXWCQUAL-30-MEX

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 7 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
10h ago	97¢	3	bought yes
7d ago	98¢	26	bought yes
9d ago	92¢	10	bought no
9d ago	93¢	5	bought no
9d ago	93¢	10	bought no
2mo ago	98¢	9.68	bought yes
2mo ago	98¢	0.74	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.