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Xi Jinping successor·closes in 223mo

Will Li Xi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?

YES means Li Xi

24h volume
0
3,115 lifetime
Open interest
1,105
+0 over 7d
Spread
1¢
1 × 1 at the touch
24h range
11¢ – 11¢
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 90¢
24h low 11¢24h high 11¢
Recent buying52% YES · 48% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 18

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3484¢
  • ask14059¢
  • ask33256¢
  • ask44855¢
  • ask418¢
  • ask20017¢
  • ask10012¢
  • ask111¢
spread1¢mid 11¢
  • bid110¢
  • bid2007¢
  • bid102¢
  • bid2211¢
  • bid8401¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Li Xi is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multiple persons are simultaneously announced as co-leaders, the market resolves proportionally. Leadership contests that extend beyond the deadline date without an announcement resolve to No. The announcement must come from official party channels or be confirmed by multiple credible news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-LXI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 73¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 52% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago11¢1bought no
4d ago11¢1bought no
1mo ago18¢1bought yes
1mo ago11¢4bought no
2mo ago11¢6bought yes
2mo ago11¢1bought yes
2mo ago10¢1bought no
2mo ago11¢8bought yes
2mo ago10¢1bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.