Yang-Mills resolution·closes in 2mo

Will Yang–Mills and the Mass Gap be resolved before 2027?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
0
30 lifetime
Open interest
25
Spread
5¢
0 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 100¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask197¢
  • ask36184¢
  • ask5583¢
  • ask2955¢
  • ask29245¢
  • ask7844¢
  • ask29¢
  • ask2005¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2027 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.

    For purposes of this Contract, Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is considered resolved if at least one of the following occurs and has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time: A peer-reviewed article presenting a complete proof, a complete disproof, or a counterexample establishing the falsity of the conjecture, in the conjecture's original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been published in one or more Source Agency peer-reviewed journals. A recognized authoritative body for the academic field of the conjecture, including but not limited to Clay Mathematics Institute, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, a national academy of sciences, the Nobel Foundation, or an equivalent governing or recognition body for the relevant academic field, has officially recognized in a written communication that the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies have published reporting describing the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, as having been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work, and no Source Agency has, prior to the Expiration time, published reporting that such written work has been formally retracted by its author(s) or by any publishing journal, has been formally withdrawn or repudiated by its author(s), or contains an identified error that has not been publicly corrected or addressed by the author(s) in a subsequent publication or amendment.

    opened
    Sep 12 · 10:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 7, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 7, 2032 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXYANGMILLS-32-27JAN01
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 8 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    15d ago11¢2bought no
    16d ago89¢1bought yes
    16d ago10¢1bought no
    22d ago10¢1bought yes
    1mo ago5¢1bought no
    1mo ago13¢1bought yes
    1mo ago13¢1bought yes
    2mo ago13¢22bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.