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New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit·closes in 16mo

Will a court find that OpenAI has infringed the copyright of the New York Times?

YES means New York Times wins

24h volume
8.95
60.8k lifetime
Open interest
15.2k
−59 over 90d
Spread
10¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
65¢ – 65¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
65%+9

A YES contract costs 65¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
35%

costs 45¢

YES bid / ask
55¢ / 65¢
NO bid / ask
35¢ / 45¢
24h low 65¢24h high 65¢
Recent buying57% YES · 43% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢50¢60¢70¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3889¢
  • ask1587¢
  • ask11185¢
  • ask3485¢
  • ask2.2280¢
  • ask3079¢
  • ask1875¢
  • ask20065¢
spread10¢mid 60¢
  • bid20055¢
  • bid555¢
  • bid1.5929¢
  • bid1.5929¢
  • bid1.4125¢
  • bid2.9825¢
  • bid27323¢
  • bid21323¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Southern District of New York has found OpenAI liable for copyright infringement (or any of the counts alleged by the Times), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 28, 2023 · 9:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
NYTOAI-27DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 57% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago65¢7.45bought yes
5h ago65¢1.5bought yes
1d ago56¢0.56bought no
2d ago43¢4bought yes
2d ago43¢18bought yes
6d ago43¢0.38bought yes
6d ago43¢3bought yes
6d ago42¢17bought yes
6d ago36¢14bought yes
6d ago36¢0.27bought yes
7d ago35¢7.45bought no
8d ago35¢6.68bought no
8d ago36¢11bought yes
8d ago36¢5bought yes
10d ago35¢6.86bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.