galdor.xyz
Admin
Party power·closes in 38mo

Will the Republican party win the House, the Democratic party win the Senate, and the Republican party win the Presidency?

YES means R-House, D-Senate, R-President

24h volume
0
27.7k lifetime
Open interest
21.6k
+7,523 over 7d
Spread
0¢
43.1k × 378 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
24h low 2¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying14% YES · 86% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2215¢
  • ask2004¢
  • ask584¢
  • ask1,9973¢
  • ask4843¢
  • ask3342¢
  • ask3.12¢
  • ask3782¢
spread0¢mid 2¢
  • bid43.1k2¢
  • bid901¢
  • bid1,6711¢
  • bid3,4131¢
  • bid52.0k1¢
  • bid2,4221¢
  • bid2,5001¢
  • bid2,8571¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican party wins the House, the Democratic party wins the Senate, and the Republican party wins the Presidency in the 2028 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 3, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
POWER-28-RH-DS-RP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 14% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago2¢22bought yes
2d ago2¢0.89bought yes
2d ago2¢273bought no
2d ago2¢0.1bought no
2d ago2¢61bought no
2d ago2¢7,545bought no
3d ago2¢1bought no
3d ago2¢3bought no
8d ago2¢10bought yes
14d ago2¢99bought yes
18d ago2¢56bought yes
18d ago2¢44bought yes
18d ago2¢31bought yes
18d ago2¢71bought yes
18d ago2¢129bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.