Alaska Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume: 0; 1,511 lifetime
Open interest: 1,070; +0 over 24h
Spread: 9¢; 200 × 202 at the touch
24h range: –; 6 recent trades

Chance of YES

21%

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

79%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask

21¢ / 30¢

NO bid / ask

70¢ / 79¢

Recent buying65% YES · 35% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask57867¢
ask1,10865¢
ask4063¢
ask5260¢
ask1859¢
ask153¢
ask71440¢
ask20230¢

spread9¢mid 26¢

bid20021¢
bid112¢
bid369¢
bid529¢
bid1,6788¢
bid1,5034¢
bid23.7k4¢
bid310.8k1¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

United States Congress

opened: Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: SENATEAK-28-D

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Republican party79¢

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 65% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
3d ago	21¢	2	bought no
25d ago	30¢	3.17	bought yes
28d ago	24¢	18	bought no
28d ago	27¢	18	bought yes
1mo ago	27¢	18	bought yes
2mo ago	22¢	1	bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.