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Alabama·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alabama?

YES means Everett Wess

24h volume
4.8
7,506 lifetime
Open interest
4,417
+4.8 over 24h
Spread
0¢
4.8 × 0.74 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 4¢
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%−0

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
24h low 4¢24h high 4¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 8:22 AMSep 20, 8:29 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,1519¢
  • ask1408¢
  • ask1207¢
  • ask1106¢
  • ask10.0k4¢
  • ask3,4794¢
  • ask204¢
  • ask0.744¢
spread0¢mid 4¢
  • bid4.84¢
  • bid5502¢
  • bid10.0k1¢
  • bid8431¢
  • bid26.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Alabama for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEAL-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14h ago4¢4.8bought yes
4d ago4¢11bought no
4d ago4¢1bought yes
4d ago4¢1.9bought yes
4d ago4¢1.88bought yes
5d ago4¢8.67bought yes
5d ago4¢98bought yes
7d ago4¢1.17bought yes
7d ago4¢2.33bought yes
7d ago4¢0.56bought yes
12d ago2¢106bought no
12d ago4¢1.01bought yes
12d ago4¢1.01bought yes
12d ago4¢1.01bought yes
12d ago4¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.