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Arkansas Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?

YES means Hallie Shoffner

24h volume
2,059
83.7k lifetime
Open interest
62.7k
Spread
0¢
30 × 2,373 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%+0

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 93¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2569¢
  • ask19¢
  • ask9,0638¢
  • ask608¢
  • ask8,7247¢
  • ask5007¢
  • ask1187¢
  • ask2,3737¢
spread0¢mid 7¢
  • bid307¢
  • bid256¢
  • bid956¢
  • bid4616¢
  • bid596¢
  • bid3006¢
  • bid396¢
  • bid3506¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEAR-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago7¢134bought yes
5h ago7¢282bought yes
5h ago7¢67bought yes
5h ago7¢108bought yes
5h ago7¢28bought yes
6h ago7¢5.25bought yes
6h ago7¢63bought yes
12h ago7¢500bought yes
12h ago7¢34bought yes
12h ago7¢575bought yes
12h ago7¢1.78bought yes
12h ago7¢18bought yes
12h ago7¢43bought yes
12h ago7¢200bought yes
22h ago7¢0.25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.