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Arkansas Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas?

YES means Tom Cotton

24h volume
11
19.1k lifetime
Open interest
14.1k
+11 over 24h
Spread
0¢
1,000 × 1,790 at the touch
24h range
94¢ – 94¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
94%+0

A YES contract costs 94¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
6%

costs 6¢

YES bid / ask
94¢ / 94¢
NO bid / ask
6¢ / 6¢
24h low 94¢24h high 94¢
Recent buying33% YES · 67% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 20, 4:18 AMSep 21, 3:50 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8896¢
  • ask2596¢
  • ask3596¢
  • ask1.2195¢
  • ask2095¢
  • ask10.0k95¢
  • ask4994¢
  • ask1,79094¢
spread0¢mid 94¢
  • bid1,00094¢
  • bid2,04894¢
  • bid1193¢
  • bid30093¢
  • bid61393¢
  • bid20093¢
  • bid4893¢
  • bid3,00493¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEAR-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 33% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago94¢0.03bought yes
6h ago94¢5.25bought yes
22h ago94¢0.25bought no
22h ago94¢1bought no
22h ago94¢4bought no
1d ago94¢48bought yes
1d ago94¢54bought yes
1d ago94¢29bought yes
1d ago94¢25bought yes
2d ago93¢10bought yes
3d ago93¢139bought no
3d ago93¢139bought no
3d ago93¢5bought no
3d ago93¢25bought no
3d ago93¢29bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.