Florida Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
0
1,258 lifetime
Open interest
418
−31 over 90d
Spread
205 × 205 at the touch
24h range
5 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 89¢
Recent buying12% YES · 88% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask53264¢
  • ask20063¢
  • ask27558¢
  • ask4257¢
  • ask35356¢
  • ask4851¢
  • ask1650¢
  • ask20520¢
spreadmid 15¢
  • bid20511¢
  • bid189
  • bid472
  • bid53.8k
  • bid10.0k
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Florida for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEFL-28-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 108¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 5 trades, 12% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago51¢2.54bought yes
1d ago43¢1bought yes
1d ago19¢1bought yes
3d ago12¢31bought no
3d ago11¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.