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Florida Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Florida?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
0
3,992 lifetime
Open interest
1,144
Spread
5¢
205 × 151 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
57%

A YES contract costs 85¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
43%

costs 20¢

YES bid / ask
80¢ / 85¢
NO bid / ask
15¢ / 20¢
Recent buying20% YES · 80% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,14798¢
  • ask22898¢
  • ask5098¢
  • ask295¢
  • ask791¢
  • ask45790¢
  • ask20089¢
  • ask15185¢
spread5¢mid 83¢
  • bid20580¢
  • bid0.0757¢
  • bid5149¢
  • bid36946¢
  • bid27542¢
  • bid53236¢
  • bid22332¢
  • bid94931¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Florida for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEFL-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 108¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 20% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago57¢0.93bought no
1d ago84¢1bought no
1d ago84¢26bought no
3d ago80¢34bought no
3d ago89¢3bought yes
4d ago80¢11bought no
12d ago89¢11bought yes
12d ago86¢20bought no
12d ago87¢11bought yes
2mo ago82¢5bought no
2mo ago82¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.