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Iowa Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?

YES means Ashley Hinson

24h volume
12.9k
1.24M lifetime
Open interest
751.7k
+71.8k over 7d
Spread
1¢
21.9k × 20.4k at the touch
24h range
59¢ – 61¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
60%

A YES contract costs 61¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
40%

costs 40¢

YES bid / ask
60¢ / 61¢
NO bid / ask
39¢ / 40¢
24h low 59¢24h high 61¢
Recent buying10% YES · 90% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,16669¢
  • ask65067¢
  • ask250.4k66¢
  • ask86965¢
  • ask5,18064¢
  • ask2,99863¢
  • ask7,33562¢
  • ask20.4k61¢
spread1¢mid 61¢
  • bid21.9k60¢
  • bid250.9k59¢
  • bid10.4k58¢
  • bid69257¢
  • bid6,28656¢
  • bid3,72055¢
  • bid25.2k54¢
  • bid1,06053¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEIA-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 10% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19m ago60¢170bought no
2h ago60¢7.97bought no
2h ago60¢24bought no
3h ago61¢7.96bought yes
4h ago61¢1bought yes
4h ago61¢1.57bought yes
5h ago60¢144bought no
6h ago61¢1bought yes
6h ago61¢1.59bought yes
7h ago61¢100bought yes
9h ago60¢4.96bought no
10h ago61¢7.97bought yes
11h ago61¢16bought yes
11h ago61¢1bought yes
12h ago61¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.