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Iowa Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
0
1,665 lifetime
Open interest
1,018
Spread
3¢
505 × 505 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
65%

A YES contract costs 38¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
35%

costs 65¢

YES bid / ask
35¢ / 38¢
NO bid / ask
62¢ / 65¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,57285¢
  • ask2,07781¢
  • ask1,69977¢
  • ask1,17572¢
  • ask20371¢
  • ask80470¢
  • ask7.4365¢
  • ask50538¢
spread3¢mid 37¢
  • bid50535¢
  • bid120¢
  • bid15217¢
  • bid20016¢
  • bid36715¢
  • bid4,00811¢
  • bid3,2536¢
  • bid14.7k6¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEIA-28-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 129¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago65¢44bought yes
3d ago38¢1bought yes
3d ago35¢1bought no
7d ago35¢16bought no
27d ago36¢26bought yes
27d ago38¢228bought yes
1mo ago38¢126bought yes
2mo ago38¢25bought yes
2mo ago36¢19bought yes
2mo ago37¢19bought yes
2mo ago39¢39bought yes
2mo ago37¢181bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.