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SENATEIL·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Illinois?

YES means Juliana Stratton

24h volume
2.03
8,556 lifetime
Open interest
7,436
Spread
1¢
23 × 0.1 at the touch
24h range
97¢ – 97¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
97%−0

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
3%

costs 3¢

YES bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
24h low 97¢24h high 97¢
Recent buying3% YES · 97% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Illinois for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEIL-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 3% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago97¢2.03bought no
2d ago98¢1bought no
2d ago98¢1bought no
2d ago98¢1bought no
2d ago97¢1bought no
2d ago97¢0.2bought no
2d ago99¢0.2bought yes
2d ago97¢25bought no
2d ago99¢25bought yes
2d ago97¢4bought no
3d ago97¢5,033bought no
3d ago97¢40bought no
3d ago99¢2.01bought yes
5d ago99¢101bought yes
5d ago97¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.