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Kansas Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kansas?

YES means Adam Hamilton

24h volume
5,901
730.3k lifetime
Open interest
570.3k
Spread
1¢
17.3k × 72.7k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
26%−1

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
74%

costs 74¢

YES bid / ask
26¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 74¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1135¢
  • ask5,02534¢
  • ask5,01533¢
  • ask20731¢
  • ask2,03530¢
  • ask7,00129¢
  • ask13.0k28¢
  • ask72.7k27¢
spread1¢mid 27¢
  • bid17.3k26¢
  • bid4,76225¢
  • bid5,14224¢
  • bid2,11123¢
  • bid30.3k22¢
  • bid8,11721¢
  • bid5,18020¢
  • bid57.8k19¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Kansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEKS-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2m ago26¢14bought no
5m ago26¢20bought no
27m ago27¢18bought yes
30m ago27¢53bought yes
35m ago27¢28bought yes
36m ago27¢70bought yes
39m ago27¢7.04bought yes
1h ago27¢0.03bought yes
2h ago27¢18bought yes
2h ago26¢5bought no
3h ago27¢70bought yes
3h ago26¢27bought no
3h ago27¢35bought yes
3h ago27¢11bought yes
4h ago27¢352bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.