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Kansas Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?

YES means Roger Marshall

24h volume
6,904
467.9k lifetime
Open interest
317.6k
+94.1k over 7d
Spread
1¢
60.5k × 12.4k at the touch
24h range
73¢ – 74¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
74%

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
26%

costs 27¢

YES bid / ask
73¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 27¢
24h low 73¢24h high 74¢
Recent buying91% YES · 9% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
65¢70¢75¢80¢85¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask57.0k81¢
  • ask11180¢
  • ask9,21179¢
  • ask9,59578¢
  • ask22277¢
  • ask15.0k76¢
  • ask7575¢
  • ask12.4k74¢
spread1¢mid 74¢
  • bid60.5k73¢
  • bid11.0k72¢
  • bid5,01071¢
  • bid13670¢
  • bid28769¢
  • bid2568¢
  • bid4867¢
  • bid52565¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Kansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEKS-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 91% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago74¢5bought yes
4h ago74¢5bought yes
4h ago74¢6.63bought yes
5h ago73¢299bought no
6h ago74¢99bought yes
6h ago74¢27bought yes
6h ago74¢5bought yes
7h ago74¢7.89bought yes
9h ago73¢335bought no
9h ago74¢5bought yes
10h ago74¢5bought yes
10h ago73¢7.03bought no
10h ago74¢5bought yes
10h ago74¢5bought yes
11h ago74¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.