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Kansas Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kansas?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
0
1,725 lifetime
Open interest
695
Spread
19¢
1 × 502 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%

A YES contract costs 46¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 73¢

YES bid / ask
27¢ / 46¢
NO bid / ask
54¢ / 73¢
Recent buying65% YES · 35% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,86282¢
  • ask1,61080¢
  • ask1,42677¢
  • ask24976¢
  • ask78472¢
  • ask57867¢
  • ask5360¢
  • ask50246¢
spread19¢mid 37¢
  • bid127¢
  • bid2526¢
  • bid2525¢
  • bid50024¢
  • bid17623¢
  • bid112¢
  • bid378¢
  • bid5108¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Kansas for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEKS-28-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 65% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago27¢18bought yes
2d ago27¢5bought yes
2d ago27¢20bought yes
5d ago27¢75bought yes
6d ago27¢23bought yes
10d ago27¢25bought yes
11d ago27¢18bought yes
12d ago27¢0.84bought yes
1mo ago24¢100bought no
1mo ago53¢1bought yes
2mo ago23¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.