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Senate races·closes in 38mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Louisiana?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
0
2,375 lifetime
Open interest
17
+0 over 24h
Spread
3¢
500 × 503 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
89%

A YES contract costs 89¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
11%

costs 14¢

YES bid / ask
86¢ / 89¢
NO bid / ask
11¢ / 14¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢85¢90¢95¢volSep 20, 4:21 AMSep 20, 10:50 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask98.9k100¢
  • ask33.3k100¢
  • ask1,11199¢
  • ask1,58999¢
  • ask20098¢
  • ask5298¢
  • ask50389¢
spread3¢mid 88¢
  • bid50086¢
  • bid157¢
  • bid5350¢
  • bid5149¢
  • bid86546¢
  • bid4,92944¢
  • bid27542¢
  • bid53236¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Louisiana for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATELA-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.