Maryland Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maryland?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume: 0; 1,455 lifetime
Open interest: 418; +10 over 30d
Spread: 7¢; 1 × 200 at the touch
24h range: –; 5 recent trades

Chance of YES

96%

A YES contract costs 96¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

costs 12¢

YES bid / ask

88¢ / 96¢

NO bid / ask

5¢ / 12¢

Recent buying10% YES · 90% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask10.0k100¢
ask33.6k99¢
ask20099¢
ask4.3498¢
ask20096¢

spread7¢mid 92¢

bid188¢
bid20087¢
bid12585¢
bid157¢
bid5149¢
bid47946¢
bid5045¢
bid27542¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Maryland for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

United States Congress

opened: Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: SENATEMD-28-D

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Republican party3¢

Recent trades

Over the last 5 trades, 10% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
3d ago	96¢	1	bought yes
21d ago	96¢	9.43	bought yes
21d ago	95¢	1	bought yes
2mo ago	86¢	102	bought no
2mo ago	88¢	5	bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.