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North Carolina Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?

YES means Michael Whatley

24h volume
7,119
803.6k lifetime
Open interest
667.8k
+610.3k over 90d
Spread
0¢
8,000 × 681 at the touch
24h range
8¢ – 9¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 92¢
24h low 8¢24h high 9¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,3829¢
  • ask9799¢
  • ask1099¢
  • ask5,9138¢
  • ask1,0008¢
  • ask1,0008¢
  • ask1,0008¢
  • ask6818¢
spread0¢mid 8¢
  • bid8,0008¢
  • bid6228¢
  • bid1507¢
  • bid1546¢
  • bid4,0006¢
  • bid535¢
  • bid2055¢
  • bid250.0k5¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATENC-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
45m ago8¢47bought yes
1h ago8¢787bought yes
2h ago8¢500bought no
5h ago8¢5.87bought yes
6h ago8¢394bought yes
6h ago8¢165bought yes
6h ago8¢500bought yes
6h ago8¢50bought yes
6h ago8¢1bought yes
6h ago8¢1bought yes
6h ago8¢1bought yes
6h ago8¢150bought yes
6h ago8¢1,490bought yes
6h ago8¢488bought yes
6h ago9¢1,587bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.