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New Hampshire Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?

YES means Chris Pappas

24h volume
1,288
336.7k lifetime
Open interest
209.7k
+117.0k over 7d
Spread
1¢
12.3k × 63.7k at the touch
24h range
83¢ – 84¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
83%

A YES contract costs 83¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
17%

costs 18¢

YES bid / ask
82¢ / 83¢
NO bid / ask
17¢ / 18¢
24h low 83¢24h high 84¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
75¢80¢85¢90¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask21890¢
  • ask3,56489¢
  • ask2,25888¢
  • ask41.2k87¢
  • ask4,04886¢
  • ask2,85585¢
  • ask1,45584¢
  • ask63.7k83¢
spread1¢mid 83¢
  • bid12.3k82¢
  • bid38.1k81¢
  • bid31.4k80¢
  • bid30.1k79¢
  • bid2,07578¢
  • bid50.1k77¢
  • bid23576¢
  • bid50075¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of New Hampshire for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATENH-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12m ago83¢119bought yes
27m ago83¢119bought yes
4h ago83¢18bought yes
4h ago83¢5.95bought yes
4h ago83¢5.95bought yes
5h ago83¢1.19bought yes
5h ago83¢60bought yes
6h ago83¢3bought yes
7h ago83¢200bought no
7h ago83¢150bought no
7h ago83¢40bought no
7h ago83¢3.7bought no
9h ago84¢1bought yes
20h ago83¢2.35bought no
22h ago84¢88bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.