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New Hampshire Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?

YES means John E. Sununu

24h volume
11.4k
579.7k lifetime
Open interest
411.1k
Spread
1¢
60.7k × 22.4k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 83¢
Recent buying79% YES · 21% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of New Hampshire for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATENH-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 79% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
21m ago18¢2,627bought yes
55m ago18¢1,313bought yes
2h ago18¢3,730bought yes
3h ago18¢11bought yes
6h ago17¢142bought no
7h ago18¢1bought yes
7h ago18¢211bought yes
7h ago18¢395bought yes
7h ago18¢1,105bought yes
7h ago18¢25bought yes
7h ago18¢100bought yes
7h ago18¢662bought yes
7h ago17¢300bought no
8h ago18¢53bought yes
9h ago18¢90bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.