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Nevada Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Nevada?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
4
1,442 lifetime
Open interest
635
−32 over 90d
Spread
2¢
500 × 12 at the touch
24h range
39¢ – 60¢
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
60%+28

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
40%

costs 42¢

YES bid / ask
58¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 42¢
24h low 39¢24h high 60¢
Recent buying13% YES · 87% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢40¢50¢60¢volJul 5Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,48790¢
  • ask1,55887¢
  • ask20086¢
  • ask16782¢
  • ask67781¢
  • ask177¢
  • ask50061¢
  • ask1260¢
spread2¢mid 59¢
  • bid50058¢
  • bid5132¢
  • bid5028¢
  • bid20027¢
  • bid71926¢
  • bid1,28723¢
  • bid1,09921¢
  • bid1,41718¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Nevada for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATENV-28-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 13% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago39¢2.64bought yes
11h ago60¢0.36bought yes
11h ago39¢1bought yes
1d ago32¢11bought no
1d ago39¢11bought yes
4d ago32¢14bought no
4d ago39¢1bought no
4d ago39¢1bought no
28d ago58¢0.5bought no
28d ago58¢46bought no
28d ago59¢12bought no
28d ago59¢12bought no
2mo ago57¢0.15bought no
2mo ago61¢0.15bought yes
2mo ago57¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.