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SENATEOK·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma?

YES means Kevin Hern

24h volume
341
18.1k lifetime
Open interest
15.0k
+399 over 7d
Spread
1¢
524 × 9,799 at the touch
24h range
95¢ – 97¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
97%

A YES contract costs 97¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
3%

costs 4¢

YES bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
NO bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
24h low 95¢24h high 97¢
Recent buying6% YES · 94% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask60.0k100¢
  • ask716100¢
  • ask40100¢
  • ask50098¢
  • ask9,79997¢
spread1¢mid 97¢
  • bid52496¢
  • bid5,85996¢
  • bid296¢
  • bid1195¢
  • bid10095¢
  • bid14.0k94¢
  • bid2,00094¢
  • bid4.9284¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Oklahoma for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEOK-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 6% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago97¢51bought yes
13h ago96¢140bought no
13h ago97¢150bought yes
4d ago97¢3bought yes
4d ago97¢269bought yes
4d ago97¢272bought yes
6d ago97¢4.92bought yes
6d ago97¢0.08bought yes
6d ago95¢16bought no
6d ago95¢3bought no
9d ago97¢0.88bought yes
9d ago97¢0.96bought yes
9d ago97¢0.96bought yes
10d ago97¢1.8bought yes
11d ago94¢35bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.