Oklahoma Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
0
294 lifetime
Open interest
288
+261 over 30d
Spread
10¢
3 × 53.8k at the touch
24h range
88¢ – 94¢
4 recent trades
Chance of YES
94%

A YES contract costs 99¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
6%

costs 11¢

YES bid / ask
89¢ / 99¢
NO bid / ask
/ 11¢
24h low 88¢24h high 94¢
Recent buying8% YES · 92% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volAug 26Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.0k100¢
  • ask195100¢
  • ask53.8k99¢
spread10¢mid 94¢
  • bid389¢
  • bid10088¢
  • bid157¢
  • bid4950¢
  • bid5149¢
  • bid25646¢
  • bid27542¢
  • bid20537¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Oklahoma for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEOK-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 95¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 4 trades, 8% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago94¢7.54bought yes
7d ago94¢3bought yes
13d ago88¢250bought no
2mo ago91¢11bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.