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Oregon Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Oregon?

YES means Jeff Merkley

24h volume
5.11
4,727 lifetime
Open interest
2,910
+106 over 30d
Spread
0¢
10 × 20 at the touch
24h range
98¢ – 98¢
46 recent trades
Chance of YES
98%+0

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
2%

costs 2¢

YES bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 2¢
24h low 98¢24h high 98¢
Recent buying67% YES · 33% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volAug 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask70.0k100¢
  • ask328100¢
  • ask2098¢
spread0¢mid 98¢
  • bid1098¢
  • bid10.0k98¢
  • bid55596¢
  • bid5,00096¢
  • bid43595¢
  • bid2,00094¢
  • bid194¢
  • bid9492¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Oregon for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEOR-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 46 trades, 67% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago98¢5.11bought yes
4d ago97¢242bought no
4d ago100¢250bought yes
4d ago98¢0.82bought yes
4d ago98¢225bought no
4d ago98¢25bought no
5d ago98¢10bought yes
5d ago98¢29bought no
5d ago98¢21bought no
6d ago98¢3.05bought no
6d ago98¢7.95bought no
7d ago98¢1bought no
7d ago98¢1bought no
7d ago98¢1.05bought no
8d ago98¢22bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.