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Pennsylvania Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will John Fetterman win the Senate race in Pennsylvania?

YES means John Fetterman

24h volume
0
1,645 lifetime
Open interest
1,628
+0 over 24h
Spread
2¢
1 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 92¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask14496¢
  • ask3,09089¢
  • ask37588¢
  • ask130¢
  • ask50010¢
spread2¢mid 9¢
  • bid18¢
  • bid5007¢
  • bid981¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If John Fetterman (as an independent) is sworn in as a Senator of Pennsylvania for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Note: If John Fetterman runs as a member of the Democratic party and wins, then that market will resolve to Yes and John Fetterman (as an independent) will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 10 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEPA-28-JFET
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 10 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20d ago7¢16bought no
1mo ago10¢500bought yes
1mo ago10¢1bought yes
2mo ago18¢1bought yes
2mo ago6¢125bought yes
2mo ago8¢250bought yes
2mo ago96¢0.52bought yes
2mo ago5¢250bought yes
2mo ago6¢499bought yes
2mo ago6¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.