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Pennsylvania Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Pennsylvania?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
0
3,381 lifetime
Open interest
1,486
Spread
2¢
503 × 0.47 at the touch
24h range
–
9 recent trades
Chance of YES
23%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
77%

costs 77¢

YES bid / ask
23¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 77¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask29771¢
  • ask4970¢
  • ask6465¢
  • ask1464¢
  • ask63263¢
  • ask158¢
  • ask50026¢
  • ask0.4725¢
spread2¢mid 24¢
  • bid50323¢
  • bid50014¢
  • bid4511¢
  • bid1,00010¢
  • bid0.188¢
  • bid2978¢
  • bid2,0007¢
  • bid1466¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Pennsylvania for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Note: If John Fetterman runs as a member of the Democratic party and wins, then that market will resolve to Yes and John Fetterman (as an independent) will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEPA-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 9 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago23¢2bought no
1mo ago26¢37bought yes
2mo ago27¢21bought yes
2mo ago26¢0.16bought yes
2mo ago27¢7.03bought yes
2mo ago24¢125bought yes
2mo ago25¢250bought yes
2mo ago22¢1bought yes
2mo ago23¢125bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.