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SENATESD·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in South Dakota?

YES means Julian Beaudion

24h volume
0
27.8k lifetime
Open interest
18.8k
Spread
0¢
180 × 2.23 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2507¢
  • ask5,5546¢
  • ask5002¢
  • ask10.0k2¢
  • ask1661¢
  • ask6,3941¢
  • ask1,0201¢
  • ask2.231¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid1800¢
  • bid1,1630¢
  • bid28.6k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of South Dakota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATESD-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago1¢91bought yes
10d ago1¢334bought yes
11d ago0¢629bought no
12d ago0¢6,154bought no
12d ago0¢50bought no
12d ago0¢50bought no
12d ago0¢50bought no
12d ago0¢50bought no
12d ago0¢200bought no
12d ago0¢250bought no
12d ago0¢50bought no
13d ago2¢994bought yes
13d ago1¢200bought yes
18d ago2¢300bought yes
18d ago0¢15bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.