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South Dakota Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Dakota?

YES means Mike Rounds

24h volume
24
41.2k lifetime
Open interest
34.6k
−11 over 24h
Spread
0¢
66 × 4.08 at the touch
24h range
92¢ – 93¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
93%+0

A YES contract costs 93¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
7%

costs 8¢

YES bid / ask
93¢ / 93¢
NO bid / ask
7¢ / 8¢
24h low 92¢24h high 93¢
Recent buying7% YES · 93% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 20, 4:58 AMSep 21, 3:07 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask50096¢
  • ask10.0k95¢
  • ask65095¢
  • ask20095¢
  • ask1494¢
  • ask58494¢
  • ask1.7993¢
  • ask4.0893¢
spread0¢mid 93¢
  • bid6693¢
  • bid33692¢
  • bid2,52592¢
  • bid10.0k92¢
  • bid10.0k90¢
  • bid590¢
  • bid1,00083¢
  • bid1,00077¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Dakota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATESD-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 7% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago93¢0.01bought yes
9h ago93¢0.07bought yes
13h ago92¢12bought no
13h ago93¢11bought yes
13h ago93¢0.93bought yes
1d ago93¢1bought yes
1d ago93¢1bought yes
1d ago93¢62bought yes
1d ago93¢97bought yes
2d ago93¢1bought yes
2d ago93¢22bought yes
2d ago93¢26bought yes
2d ago93¢11bought yes
2d ago93¢6bought yes
3d ago93¢44bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.