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Wisconsin Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Wisconsin?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
1.81
7,404 lifetime
Open interest
3,155
+0 over 24h
Spread
19¢
1 × 1 at the touch
24h range
82¢ – 82¢
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
82%+18

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
18%

costs 45¢

YES bid / ask
55¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 45¢
24h low 82¢24h high 82¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢80¢volSep 20, 6:50 AMSep 21, 5:43 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,64786¢
  • ask56385¢
  • ask1,41582¢
  • ask1.8181¢
  • ask578¢
  • ask176¢
  • ask6375¢
  • ask174¢
spread19¢mid 65¢
  • bid155¢
  • bid154¢
  • bid1.8251¢
  • bid2050¢
  • bid10047¢
  • bid6828¢
  • bid4427¢
  • bid9526¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Wisconsin for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEWI-28-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 127¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
23h ago82¢1.81bought yes
13d ago64¢7.62bought yes
14d ago61¢3bought no
21d ago64¢0.01bought yes
21d ago64¢2.63bought yes
21d ago63¢5bought yes
23d ago61¢10bought no
1mo ago61¢5bought no
1mo ago61¢500bought no
1mo ago61¢79bought no
1mo ago62¢500bought no
1mo ago64¢76bought yes
1mo ago64¢53bought yes
1mo ago64¢12bought yes
1mo ago62¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.