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Wisconsin Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Wisconsin?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
6.47
1,723 lifetime
Open interest
570
+0.93 over 30d
Spread
24¢
75 × 5 at the touch
24h range
18¢ – 45¢
22 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%+27

A YES contract costs 44¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 80¢

YES bid / ask
20¢ / 44¢
NO bid / ask
56¢ / 80¢
24h low 18¢24h high 45¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volAug 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask34275¢
  • ask20174¢
  • ask6073¢
  • ask671¢
  • ask11070¢
  • ask2.269¢
  • ask1.7345¢
  • ask544¢
spread24¢mid 32¢
  • bid7520¢
  • bid8.819¢
  • bid1,39518¢
  • bid25015¢
  • bid2,64714¢
  • bid1,53512¢
  • bid10.0k10¢
  • bid15.1k9¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Wisconsin for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEWI-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 22 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago45¢0.27bought yes
1h ago42¢5bought yes
1h ago19¢1.2bought no
3d ago18¢22bought no
3d ago36¢2bought no
6d ago37¢1bought no
6d ago36¢3.07bought no
27d ago37¢4bought no
1mo ago39¢12bought yes
1mo ago39¢49bought yes
2mo ago36¢5bought yes
2mo ago38¢7.84bought yes
2mo ago31¢3.54bought no
2mo ago34¢5bought no
2mo ago33¢6bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.