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US climate goals·closes in 52mo

Will the US meet its climate goals?

YES means By 2025

24h volume
3.04
50.5k lifetime
Open interest
7,221
Spread
6¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%−0

A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 12¢
NO bid / ask
88¢ / 94¢
Recent buying16% YES · 84% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7183¢
  • ask2,18279¢
  • ask12279¢
  • ask11618¢
  • ask50014¢
  • ask19612¢
  • ask1.0412¢
  • ask512¢
spread5¢mid 9¢
  • bid56¢
  • bid5056¢
  • bid343¢
  • bid3442¢
  • bid142¢
  • bid432¢
  • bid182¢
  • bid832¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the US has 4909.9 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 8, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
cap
4909.9
ticker
USCLIMATE-2025
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 16% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago12¢1bought yes
6h ago3¢2.04bought no
8d ago12¢19bought yes
8d ago8¢27bought no
8d ago6¢10bought no
8d ago6¢4bought no
8d ago6¢5bought no
11d ago13¢1bought yes
11d ago13¢1bought yes
11d ago13¢1bought yes
11d ago13¢1bought yes
16d ago7¢17bought no
16d ago10¢1bought yes
16d ago11¢16bought yes
17d ago7¢26bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.