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US climate goals·closes in 113mo

Will the US meet its climate goals?

YES means By 2030

24h volume
0
12.2k lifetime
Open interest
2,016
+0 over 7d
Spread
3¢
291 × 23 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 83¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask0.0640¢
  • ask26440¢
  • ask50024¢
  • ask9724¢
  • ask4220¢
  • ask2520¢
  • ask2620¢
  • ask2320¢
spread3¢mid 18¢
  • bid29117¢
  • bid10017¢
  • bid1516¢
  • bid7416¢
  • bid2016¢
  • bid50016¢
  • bid12811¢
  • bid111¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the US has 3317.5 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 8, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
cap
3317.5
ticker
USCLIMATE-2030
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago20¢4.32bought yes
6d ago16¢2.83bought no
6d ago20¢2.83bought yes
8d ago16¢16bought no
8d ago16¢26bought no
8d ago20¢11bought yes
8d ago20¢17bought yes
8d ago20¢15bought yes
8d ago20¢1bought yes
9d ago16¢0.37bought no
9d ago16¢0.63bought no
10d ago20¢4.75bought yes
10d ago20¢5.89bought yes
11d ago20¢2.51bought yes
11d ago16¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.