Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?

Before 2030activebinarygreater_or_equal

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

37¢ / 38¢

spread 1¢

Last trade

38¢

–

No bid / ask

62¢ / 63¢

24h volume

44.6k lifetime

Open interest

13.9k

top of book 134 × 63

Closes

in 40mo

Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask20056¢
ask50050¢
ask45049¢
ask167

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

USGS

opens: May 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 8
category: Climate and Weather
event: independent outcomes

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Time	Yes	No	Size	Taker
4h ago	38¢	62¢

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market41

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2030-01-01T04:59:00Z

created_time2025-05-24T01:25:15.24051Z

early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.