Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
opens
Jul 14, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 31, 2027 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
expires
Jan 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
Recent trades
Most recent first. Price is the YES side.
Time
Yes
No
Size
Taker
25m ago
6¢
94¢
20
yes
2h ago
Raw payload
Exactly what the API returned for this market.
Show JSON
market39
can_close_earlytrue
close_time2027-01-31T13:25:00Z
created_time2025-07-09T20:54:10.308365Z
early_close_conditionIf this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
Order book
Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.
Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
ask15313¢
ask45112¢
ask14211¢
ask8510¢
ask7,1799¢
ask5,5708¢
ask12.1k7¢
ask15.4k6¢
spread1¢mid 6¢
bid285¢
bid5,3754¢
bid10.6k3¢
bid120.8k2¢
bid80.8k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes
6¢
94¢
9.25
yes
3h ago
6¢
94¢
3
yes
4h ago
5¢
95¢
1.72
yes
4h ago
5¢
95¢
90
yes
4h ago
5¢
95¢
100
yes
4h ago
5¢
95¢
71
yes
4h ago
4¢
96¢
16
no
5h ago
4¢
96¢
104
no
5h ago
5¢
95¢
184
yes
6h ago
5¢
95¢
134
no
6h ago
5¢
95¢
1.59
no
6h ago
5¢
95¢
972
no
6h ago
5¢
95¢
279
no
6h ago
6¢
94¢
344
yes
7h ago
6¢
94¢
13
yes
7h ago
6¢
94¢
68
yes
8h ago
6¢
94¢
52
yes
8h ago
5¢
95¢
28
yes
8h ago
5¢
95¢
8
no
8h ago
5¢
95¢
1.2
no
8h ago
5¢
95¢
19
no
8h ago
6¢
94¢
81
yes
8h ago
5¢
95¢
1.2
no
8h ago
6¢
94¢
3
yes
event_ticker
KXRECSSNBER-26
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2027-01-31T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2027-02-07T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
last_price_dollars0.0600
latest_expiration_time2027-02-07T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.9500
no_bid_dollars0.9400
no_sub_titleStarts
notional_value_dollars1.0000
open_interest_fp937449.25
open_time2025-07-14T14:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.0500
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.0600
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0500
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThe market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.